US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Q: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

NO. This prediction market resolved NO on Jul 31, 2026, having last priced the outcome at 0%. Source: Polymarket settlement, via Kresmion.

Part of: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?. This market has settled. The prices below are historical and are no longer tradable.

Outcome

Resolved NO

This market resolved NO. Resolution date Jul 31, 2026. The last recorded YES price before resolution was 0 percent. The market priced the eventual outcome at 1 percent 8 days before resolution.

Resolved

Jul 31, 2026

Final YES price

Priced at lead

Lead

8 days

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome up to resolution.

Weekly closes

Last recorded YES probability of each week, oldest first.
Week start	YES probability
Jul 13, 2026	1%
Jul 20, 2026	0%
Jul 27, 2026	0%

More geopolitics markets

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?17%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?4%Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?7%Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?8%Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?3%

Live markets in the same category, priced by the same venue.

FREE, NO ACCOUNT

Get the smart money brief

Insider trades, 13F flows, and cross asset positioning reads with the source on every number, in your inbox when there is something in the data, or live on Telegram. Free, no account.

Get the morning brief by email

No fixed schedule: it goes out when the data has something in it. Unsubscribe anytime.

Or get live alerts on Telegram

Join on Telegram

One tap. Live alerts, no email needed.

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not a live order book.

Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.