Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Part of: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?" at 3 percent YES, on $11.7M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Aug 21, 2026) and 5 percent (Jul 16, 2026), across 1,219 recorded prices. The current price of 3 percent is 0.2 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (3 percent), and 1.4 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (5 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 4% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 5% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 3% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 3 percent, with the NO outcome at 97 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a co...
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 04:54 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.