Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Sep 13, 2026) and 5 percent (Jul 16, 2026), across 2,911 recorded prices. The current price of 3 percent is 0.5 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (3 percent), and 0.1 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (3 percent).

Weekly closes

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 3 percent, with the NO outcome at 97 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a co...

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Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1472548

Kresmion, "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1472548.

Link to this data (HTML):

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