US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" at 99% as of Oct 15, 2026, 11:30 UTC, up from 88% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Oct 2, 2026, this market has traded between 77 percent (Oct 2, 2026) and 99 percent (Oct 15, 2026), across 790 recorded prices. The current price of 99 percent is 11.4 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (88 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | 88% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 94% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 99% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 99 percent and the best ask is 99 percent, a spread of 0.3 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $5K on the bid side and $132K on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-15 11:52 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 99 percent, with the NO outcome at 1 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territoria...
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5130978
Kresmion, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5130978.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 11:30 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.