Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?
Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in October?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?" at 53% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:05 UTC.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Oct 8, 2026, this market has traded between 44 percent (Oct 15, 2026) and 89 percent (Oct 12, 2026), across 213 recorded prices.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 53 percent, with the NO outcome at 47 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
More crypto markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5407561
Kresmion, "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-bitcoin-reach-85k-in-october-2026-from-october-7. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5407561.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-bitcoin-reach-85k-in-october-2026-from-october-7">Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:05 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.