Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Part of: Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?" at 95% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:49 UTC.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2125855. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 27, 2026, this market has traded between 94 percent (Oct 3, 2026) and 96 percent (Oct 2, 2026), across 214 recorded prices.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 95 percent, with the NO outcome at 5 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2125855
Kresmion, "Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-north-carolina-use-a-new-congressional-map-for-the-2026-united-states-midterm-elections. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2125855.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-north-carolina-use-a-new-congressional-map-for-the-2026-united-states-midterm-elections">Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:49 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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