Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Part of: California Governor Election Winner. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?" at 4% as of Oct 3, 2026, 16:28 UTC, down from 5% a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 628940. Method and limitations.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Aug 5, 2026) and 8 percent (Aug 12, 2026), across 2,302 recorded prices. The current price of 4 percent is 1.1 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (5 percent), and 0.6 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (5 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 7% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 7% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 4% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 4% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 4 percent and the best ask is 4 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.040 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $3 at the best bid and $23 at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 16:24 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 4 percent, with the NO outcome at 96 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 628940
Kresmion, "Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-steve-hilton-win-the-california-governor-election-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 628940.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-steve-hilton-win-the-california-governor-election-in-2026">Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 16:28 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.