Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Part of: Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?" at 98% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:17 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 1193650. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Aug 6, 2026, this market has traded between 95 percent (Aug 12, 2026) and 98 percent (Sep 19, 2026), across 2,121 recorded prices. The current price of 98 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (98 percent), and 1.5 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (97 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | 96% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 96% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 96% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 96% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 97% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 98% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 98% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 98% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 98% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 98 percent and the best ask is 98 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $15K on the bid side and $15K on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 98 percent, with the NO outcome at 2 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1193650
Kresmion, "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1193650.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled">Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:17 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.