Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Part of: Which party will win the House in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" at 94% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:51 UTC, up from 93% a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 562802. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 80 percent (Aug 10, 2026) and 94 percent (Sep 20, 2026), across 11,536 recorded prices. The current price of 94 percent is 1.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (93 percent), and 4.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (90 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 85% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 87% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 86% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 89% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 88% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 89% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 90% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 88% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 87% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 93% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 93% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 94% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 93 percent and the best ask is 94 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $148K on the bid side and $61K on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 94 percent, with the NO outcome at 6 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 562802
Kresmion, "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 562802.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections">Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:51 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.