Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Part of: Kansas Senate Election Winner. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?" at 38% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:47 UTC, up from 30% a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 630746. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 19, 2026, this market has traded between 26 percent (Sep 20, 2026) and 38 percent (Oct 3, 2026), across 468 recorded prices. The current price of 38 percent is 8.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (30 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | 26% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 30% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 38% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 37 percent and the best ask is 38 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.38 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $624 at the best bid and $20K at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 38 percent, with the NO outcome at 62 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 630746
Kresmion, "Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-democrats-win-the-kansas-senate-race-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 630746.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-democrats-win-the-kansas-senate-race-in-2026">Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:47 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.