Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Part of: Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 3% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:49 UTC.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 943825. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 27, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Sep 30, 2026) and 4 percent (Oct 2, 2026), across 198 recorded prices.
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 2 percent and the best ask is 5 percent, a spread of 3.3 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.035 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $1 at the best bid and $1 at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 3 percent, with the NO outcome at 97 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independen...
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Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 943825
Kresmion, "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-hold-exactly-53-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 943825.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:49 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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