Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?
Part of: PA-16 House Election Winner. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?" at 92% as of Oct 3, 2026, 16:28 UTC, up from 91% a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 1284647. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 20, 2026, this market has traded between 77 percent (May 20, 2026) and 94 percent (Aug 31, 2026), across 2,522 recorded prices. The current price of 92 percent is 1.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (91 percent), and 0.5 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (91 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 84% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 85% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 85% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 88% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 88% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 88% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 90% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 92% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 91% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 92% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 92% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 92% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 91 percent and the best ask is 92 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $2K on the bid side and $644 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 14:02 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 92 percent, with the NO outcome at 8 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
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Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1284647
Kresmion, "Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-win-the-pa-16-house-seat. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1284647.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 16:28 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.