Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?

Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?" at 94% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:17 UTC, down from 95% a week earlier.

As of Oct 3, 2026, 15:17 UTC. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 1285055. Method and limitations.

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jul 12, 2026, this market has traded between 92 percent (Jul 17, 2026) and 96 percent (Oct 1, 2026), across 2,514 recorded prices. The current price of 94 percent is 0.7 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (95 percent), and 0.2 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (95 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 94 percent and the best ask is 94 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $6K on the bid side and $972 on the ask side.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 94 percent, with the NO outcome at 6 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

More politics markets

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Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1285055

Kresmion, "Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ut-04-house-seat. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1285055.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ut-04-house-seat">Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>