Will the Republican Party win the VA-11 House seat?

Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republican Party win the VA-11 House seat?" at 1% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:17 UTC, up from below 1% a week earlier.

As of Oct 3, 2026, 15:17 UTC. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 1285111. Method and limitations.

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jun 27, 2026, this market has traded between 0 percent (Sep 1, 2026) and 3 percent (Jun 28, 2026), across 2,569 recorded prices. The current price of 1 percent is 1.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (0 percent), and 1.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (0 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 0 percent and the best ask is 3 percent, a spread of 2.2 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.014 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $0 at the best bid and $1 at the best ask.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 1 percent, with the NO outcome at 99 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

More politics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1285111

Kresmion, "Will the Republican Party win the VA-11 House seat? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-win-the-va-11-house-seat. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1285111.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-win-the-va-11-house-seat">Will the Republican Party win the VA-11 House seat? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>