Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?" at 41% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:28 UTC, up from 34% a week earlier.

As of Oct 3, 2026, 15:28 UTC. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 630773. Method and limitations.

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since May 16, 2026, this market has traded between 23 percent (May 16, 2026) and 44 percent (Oct 1, 2026), across 2,278 recorded prices. The current price of 41 percent is 7.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (34 percent), and 10.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (31 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 40 percent and the best ask is 41 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.41 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $3K at the best bid and $6K at the best ask.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 41 percent, with the NO outcome at 59 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

More politics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 630773

Kresmion, "Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republicans-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 630773.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republicans-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026">Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>