Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?" at 74% as of Oct 3, 2026, 16:06 UTC, down from 79% a week earlier.

As of Oct 3, 2026, 16:06 UTC. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 629691. Method and limitations.

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jul 11, 2026, this market has traded between 63 percent (Sep 23, 2026) and 96 percent (Jul 26, 2026), across 2,275 recorded prices. The current price of 74 percent is 5.2 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (79 percent), and 7.1 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (81 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 74 percent and the best ask is 74 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $117 on the bid side and $1K on the ask side.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-10-03 16:24 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 74 percent, with the NO outcome at 26 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

More politics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 629691

Kresmion, "Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republicans-win-the-texas-governor-race-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 629691.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republicans-win-the-texas-governor-race-in-2026">Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>