PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Oct 9, 2026
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Part of: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" resolved No on Oct 9, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Oct 9, 2026, and below 1% seven days earlier.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, May 2, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From May 2, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 23, 2026) to 2% (May 2, 2026), across 2,688 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | 1% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 0% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled politics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 637017
Kresmion, "Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-09, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-xi-jinping-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 637017.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-xi-jinping-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026">Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
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