Will Yabloko win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

"Will Yabloko win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" resolved No on Sep 21, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 21, 2026, and below 1% seven days earlier.

As of settlement on Sep 21, 2026. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2046130. Method and limitations.

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Aug 7, 2026 to Sep 21, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Aug 7, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Aug 19, 2026) to 3% (Aug 9, 2026), across 1,547 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will c...

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More politics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled politics markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2046130

Kresmion, "Will Yabloko win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-21, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-yabloko-win-the-second-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2046130.