2026-07-14

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?" moved +89pp in 24h to 97%

Prediction market repriced: "Set Handicap: Jacquemot (-1.5) vs Amariei (+1.5)" moved +34pp in 24h to 97%

Prediction market repriced: "US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?" moved -26pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Fed rate hike in 2026?" moved -20pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "France to win the second half?" moved -32pp in 24h to 5%

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?" moved +22pp in 24h to 57%

Prediction market repriced: "Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?" moved -28pp in 24h to 7%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" moved -27pp in 24h to 7%

Prediction market repriced: "Cordenons: Peter Makk vs Thiago Seyboth Wild" moved +20pp in 24h to 40%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?" moved -52pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" moved -33pp in 24h to 3%

Prediction market repriced: "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" moved +28pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?" moved -26pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?" moved +54pp in 24h to 59%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?" moved +26pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?" moved -46pp in 24h to 46%

Prediction market repriced: "Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?" moved -17pp in 24h to 21%

Prediction market repriced: "US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?" moved -18pp in 24h to 3%

Prediction market repriced: "Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?" moved -18pp in 24h to 42%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?" moved +67pp in 24h to 78%

ETH open interest -68.3% — OI collapse

SOL open interest -23.4% — OI collapse

BTC open interest -46.5% — OI collapse

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?" moved +41pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?" moved -23pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?" moved +28pp in 24h to 56%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?" moved +48pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?" moved -33pp in 24h to 34%

IO open interest +401.1% — OI surge

DRIFT open interest -25.8% — OI collapse

JUP open interest +32.5% — OI surge

STRK open interest +105.3% — OI surge

SEI open interest +418.3% — OI surge

TNSR open interest +332.6% — OI surge

W open interest -79.5% — OI collapse

PYTH open interest -75.9% — OI collapse

KMNO open interest +84.5% — OI surge

ENA open interest -21.6% — OI collapse

JTO open interest -39.4% — OI collapse

EIGEN open interest -65.8% — OI collapse

ME open interest -67.0% — OI collapse

LINK open interest +228.0% — OI surge

UNI open interest +307.4% — OI surge

APT open interest +315.3% — OI surge

DOGE open interest +244.6% — OI surge

OP open interest -67.0% — OI collapse

SUI open interest +268.4% — OI surge

NEAR open interest -64.0% — OI collapse

LTC open interest -79.3% — OI collapse

XRP open interest +196.1% — OI surge

ATOM open interest -74.9% — OI collapse

ARB open interest +175.1% — OI surge

TIA open interest +65.0% — OI surge

DOT open interest -74.9% — OI collapse

BCH open interest +426.3% — OI surge

AVAX open interest -72.3% — OI collapse

INJ open interest -31.9% — OI collapse

ADA open interest +193.5% — OI surge

SOL open interest -47.3% — OI collapse

BTC open interest +52.9% — OI surge

ETH open interest +177.9% — OI surge

IO open interest +115.6% — OI surge

JTO open interest +31.6% — OI surge

TNSR open interest +335.6% — OI surge

STRK open interest -25.7% — OI collapse

ENA open interest +120.6% — OI surge

KMNO open interest +300.3% — OI surge

W open interest -56.0% — OI collapse

SEI open interest -81.2% — OI collapse

PYTH open interest -46.9% — OI collapse

EIGEN open interest -75.1% — OI collapse

JUP open interest -73.6% — OI collapse

DRIFT open interest +33.4% — OI surge

ME open interest -36.1% — OI collapse

SUI open interest -61.9% — OI collapse

DOT open interest -38.6% — OI collapse

XRP open interest -66.4% — OI collapse

LINK open interest -69.3% — OI collapse

NEAR open interest +190.8% — OI surge

LTC open interest -39.1% — OI collapse

APT open interest +316.3% — OI surge

DOGE open interest -63.5% — OI collapse

ARB open interest +57.4% — OI surge

BCH open interest -35.2% — OI collapse

INJ open interest +540.5% — OI surge

OP open interest +246.3% — OI surge

UNI open interest +311.0% — OI surge

ATOM open interest -45.0% — OI collapse

ADA open interest -65.9% — OI collapse

TIA open interest -71.2% — OI collapse

AVAX open interest -73.4% — OI collapse

SOL open interest +94.4% — OI surge

ETH open interest +22.5% — OI surge

BTC open interest -45.2% — OI collapse

SEI open interest -80.5% — OI collapse

STRK open interest -81.0% — OI collapse

ME open interest +751.1% — OI surge

JUP open interest -73.3% — OI collapse

TNSR open interest -77.1% — OI collapse

JTO open interest +86.1% — OI surge

PYTH open interest -55.1% — OI collapse

EIGEN open interest -71.0% — OI collapse

W open interest -79.1% — OI collapse

ENA open interest -87.7% — OI collapse

DRIFT open interest +32.0% — OI surge

IO open interest +414.4% — OI surge

KMNO open interest -53.6% — OI collapse

DOT open interest -38.3% — OI collapse

ADA open interest -65.7% — OI collapse

BCH open interest -71.0% — OI collapse

SUI open interest +59.0% — OI surge

OP open interest -60.0% — OI collapse

LINK open interest -68.8% — OI collapse

AVAX open interest +62.9% — OI surge

APT open interest -75.7% — OI collapse

LTC open interest -65.9% — OI collapse

TIA open interest +399.6% — OI surge

ARB open interest -76.3% — OI collapse

DOGE open interest -63.1% — OI collapse

NEAR open interest -65.7% — OI collapse

INJ open interest -31.8% — OI collapse

ATOM open interest +612.6% — OI surge

XRP open interest +50.7% — OI surge

UNI open interest +315.2% — OI surge

BTC open interest -45.0% — OI collapse

ETH open interest +26.6% — OI surge

SOL open interest +91.6% — OI surge

KMNO funding -0.0213% · 1th percentile of its 93d Binance history

JTO open interest +83.4% — OI surge

W open interest -42.0% — OI collapse

IO open interest +420.6% — OI surge

DRIFT open interest -28.6% — OI collapse

ENA open interest +712.2% — OI surge

SEI open interest -81.2% — OI collapse

JUP open interest +275.1% — OI surge

STRK open interest -57.7% — OI collapse

KMNO open interest -74.2% — OI collapse

ME open interest -82.2% — OI collapse

EIGEN open interest -64.6% — OI collapse

TNSR open interest +1159.3% — OI surge

PYTH open interest -84.0% — OI collapse

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?" moved +16pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 15?" moved +16pp in 24h to 17%

ETH RSI 80.6 — overbought (crossed above 70)

BTC RSI 72.4 — overbought (crossed above 70)

CFTC NATURAL GAS speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

OSINT: Iran attacks Kuwaiti naval vessel near Strait of Hormuz, 4 sailors injured

CFTC NATURAL GAS speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

OSINT: Houthis Warn Airlines Against Saudi Airspace Operations

CFTC NATURAL GAS speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

OSINT: Ukraine sinks 11 Russian ships in Sea of Azov, Russia to reroute grain, oil

Oil +3.75%: significant gain on the session

CFTC NATURAL GAS speculators at extreme long: 52-week positioning extreme

OSINT: Iran Conflict Resumes, US Oil Prices Set to Top $85/bbl

Oil +2.16%: significant gain on the session

Phase 3 trial terminated early — BRISTOL Low-Dose Adjunctive Aripiprazole in the Treatment of Bipolar Depression: Double-

Phase 3 trial terminated early — AMGEN Evaluation of the Conversion From Peginesatide to Epoetin Alfa in Patients Recei

Phase 3 trial terminated early — AMGEN First-Line Treatment for Locally Advanced or Metastatic Mesenchymal Epithelial T

Phase 3 trial terminated early — PFIZER Efficacy and Safety of Inhaled Insulin Compared With Subcutaneous Human Insulin

Phase 3 trial terminated early — PFIZER A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Oral Etrasimod in the Treatment of

Phase 3 trial terminated early — PFIZER Study Comparing Effect On Carotid Atherosclerosis Following Conversion From Tacr

Phase 3 trial terminated early — PFIZER Biological, Pathological and Imagery Markers in the First-line Treatment of Meta

Phase 3 trial terminated early — Merck A Study of the Co-administration of Sitagliptin and Atorvastatin in Inadequately

Debt issued for acquisition financing — deal likely imminent

Debt issued for acquisition financing — deal likely imminent

Debt issued for acquisition financing — deal likely imminent

Debt issued for acquisition financing — deal likely imminent

Debt issued for acquisition financing — deal likely imminent

Debt issued for acquisition financing — deal likely imminent

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd search volume spiked +100 pts — unusual interest

Q4-2025: Missed consensus by 29.5% — EPS $-0.55 vs $-0.4246 estimate

Q2-2025: Beat consensus by 106.0% — EPS $0.03 vs $-0.5042 estimate

Q3-2025: Beat consensus by 20.6% — EPS $-0.26 vs $-0.3276 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 201.3% — EPS $-0.59 vs $-0.1958 estimate

Q2-2025: Beat consensus by 15.5% — EPS $0.42 vs $0.3636 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 11.6% — EPS $0.41 vs $0.3674 estimate

Q3-2025: Beat consensus by 7.4% — EPS $0.43 vs $0.4005 estimate

Q3-2024: Beat consensus by 35.6% — EPS $-2.43 vs $-3.774 estimate

Q2-2024: Beat consensus by 13.5% — EPS $-3.31 vs $-3.825 estimate

Q1-2024: Missed consensus by 20.0% — EPS $-4.53 vs $-3.774 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 12.0% — EPS $0.24 vs $0.2142 estimate

Q2-2025: Beat consensus by 50.5% — EPS $0.22 vs $0.1462 estimate

Q4-2025: Beat consensus by 21.4% — EPS $0.26 vs $0.2142 estimate

Q3-2025: Missed consensus by 15.2% — EPS $0.16 vs $0.1887 estimate

Q3-2025: Missed consensus by 29.3% — EPS $-0.51 vs $-0.3944 estimate

Q2-2025: Beat consensus by 55.4% — EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.3363 estimate

Q4-2025: Missed consensus by 20.8% — EPS $-0.93 vs $-0.7701 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 14.8% — EPS $-1.17 vs $-1.0196 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 9.2% — EPS $0.68 vs $0.7486 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 10.2% — EPS $1.95 vs $1.7692 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 11.7% — EPS $1.07 vs $0.9581 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.1% — EPS $1.97 vs $1.6817 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 13.1% — EPS $1.27 vs $1.1228 estimate

Q4-2019: Beat consensus by 51.5% — EPS $-0.01 vs $-0.0206 estimate

Q3-2019: Missed consensus by 191.3% — EPS $-0.03 vs $-0.0103 estimate

Q2-2019: Missed consensus by 191.3% — EPS $-0.06 vs $-0.0206 estimate

Q3-2009: Beat consensus by 19.6% — EPS $0.58 vs $0.4848 estimate

Q2-2009: Missed consensus by 7.6% — EPS $0.56 vs $0.606 estimate

Q4-2009: Missed consensus by 11.7% — EPS $0.58 vs $0.6565 estimate

Q4-2025: Missed consensus by 37.4% — EPS $0.21 vs $0.3356 estimate