AI bubble burst in 2026?

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 6 percent (Oct 8, 2026) and 28 percent (Jul 29, 2026), across 2,704 recorded prices. The current price of 6 percent is 0.2 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (6 percent), and 7.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (13 percent).

Weekly closes

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 6 percent, with the NO outcome at 94 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporti...

More finance markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 691340

Kresmion, "AI bubble burst in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/ai-industry-downturn-by-december-31-2026-857. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 691340.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/ai-industry-downturn-by-december-31-2026-857">AI bubble burst in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>