AI bubble burst in 2026?
Part of: AI bubble burst by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "AI bubble burst in 2026?" at 11 percent YES, on $2.3M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 11 percent (Aug 24, 2026) and 28 percent (Jul 29, 2026), across 1,195 recorded prices. The current price of 11 percent is 1.4 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (13 percent), and 15.3 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (27 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 16% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 16% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 19% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 14% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 14% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 12% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 11% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 11 percent, with the NO outcome at 89 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporti...
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 06:33 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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