Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Part of: Largest Company end of December 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 61% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:33 UTC, down from 88% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 28, 2026, this market has traded between 41 percent (Aug 3, 2026) and 89 percent (Oct 6, 2026), across 2,534 recorded prices. The current price of 61 percent is 26.5 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (88 percent), and 7.5 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (69 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 55% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 70% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 76% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 73% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 76% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 80% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 72% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 72% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 74% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 85% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 84% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 61% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 61 percent, with the NO outcome at 39 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 676739
Kresmion, "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31-244. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 676739.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31-244">Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:33 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.