Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Part of: Largest Company end of December 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 24, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 72 percent YES, down 1.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $1.1M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 28, 2026, this market has traded between 41 percent (Aug 3, 2026) and 80 percent (Aug 17, 2026), across 879 recorded prices. The current price of 72 percent is 7.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (79 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 55% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 70% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 76% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 73% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 72% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 72 percent, with the NO outcome at 28 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-24 16:54 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.