Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Part of: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" at 51% as of Oct 15, 2026, 13:10 UTC, up from 44% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 30, 2026, this market has traded between 32 percent (Aug 30, 2026) and 94 percent (Aug 3, 2026), across 2,776 recorded prices. The current price of 51 percent is 7.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (44 percent), and 5.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (46 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 92% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 90% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 62% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 57% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 33% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 41% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 53% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 39% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 56% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 48% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 45% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 51% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 51 percent, with the NO outcome at 49 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is alr...
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Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1321561
Kresmion, "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-spacex-have-the-highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-516. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1321561.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-spacex-have-the-highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-516">Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 13:10 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.