Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Part of: Bank of Japan Decision in October?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" below 1% as of Oct 30, 2026, 01:08 UTC.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Oct 28, 2026, this market has traded between 0 percent (Oct 28, 2026) and 0 percent (Oct 28, 2026), across 61 recorded prices.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 0 percent, with the NO outcome at 100 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3251601
Kresmion, "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-30, https://kresmion.com/odds/bank-of-japan-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260731151539216. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3251601.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/bank-of-japan-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260731151539216">Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-30 01:08 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.