Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Part of: Bitcoin all time high by ___?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?" at 5% as of Oct 25, 2026, 02:40 UTC, up from 4% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Aug 13, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Aug 18, 2026) and 13 percent (Sep 21, 2026), across 2,297 recorded prices. The current price of 5 percent is 0.9 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (4 percent), and 3.4 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (9 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 8% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 8% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 7% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 8% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 6% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 9% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 7% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 5% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 5 percent, with the NO outcome at 95 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
More crypto markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 948958
Kresmion, "Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-25, https://kresmion.com/odds/bitcoin-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 948958.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/bitcoin-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026">Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-25 02:40 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.