Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
Part of: Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?" at 47% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:36 UTC.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 4489700. Method and limitations.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 21, 2026, this market has traded between 37 percent (Sep 21, 2026) and 79 percent (Sep 22, 2026), across 50 recorded prices.
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 37 percent and the best ask is 40 percent, a spread of 3.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-09-22 15:29 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 47 percent, with the NO outcome at 53 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 15 12:00 PM ET to September 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
More other markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4489700
Kresmion, "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/elon-musk-of-tweets-september-15-september-22-2026-200-219. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4489700.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 15:36 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.