Iran Nuke before 2027?
Part of: Iran Nuke before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Yes probability
5%
24h change
-0.1pp
7d change
+0.1pp
Volume
$1.1M
Resolves by
Dec 31, 2026
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.