Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?" at 33% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:24 UTC, down from 43% a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3954617. Method and limitations.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 4, 2026, this market has traded between 25 percent (Sep 4, 2026) and 71 percent (Sep 13, 2026), across 617 recorded prices. The current price of 33 percent is 10.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (43 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | 41% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 38% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 33% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 33% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 33 percent, with the NO outcome at 67 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do no...
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3954617
Kresmion, "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/iran-oman-hormuz-agreement-by-october-31. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3954617.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 15:24 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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