Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?" at 9% as of Sep 22, 2026, 14:56 UTC, down from 26% a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3491474. Method and limitations.
One message when it happens. Nothing else. No account needed.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Aug 19, 2026, this market has traded between 7 percent (Sep 18, 2026) and 64 percent (Aug 19, 2026), across 1,142 recorded prices. The current price of 9 percent is 16.5 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (26 percent), and 31.5 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (41 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | 38% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 30% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 26% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 20% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 14% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 9% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 9 percent, with the NO outcome at 91 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do no...
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3491474
Kresmion, "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/iran-oman-hormuz-agreement-by-september-30-823-929. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3491474.
Get the smart money brief
Insider trades, 13F flows, and cross asset positioning reads with the source on every number, in your inbox when there is something in the data, or live on Telegram. Free, no account.
No fixed schedule: it goes out when the data has something in it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 14:56 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.