Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jun 11, 2026, this market has traded between 13 percent (Oct 15, 2026) and 75 percent (Jun 11, 2026), across 9,972 recorded prices. The current price of 13 percent is 6.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (19 percent), and 5.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (18 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 12 percent and the best ask is 13 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.13 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $6K at the best bid and $5K at the best ask.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-10-15 09:46 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 13 percent, with the NO outcome at 87 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underly...

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2176270

Kresmion, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2176270.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31">Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>