Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" at 32 percent YES, on $9.9M of lifetime volume.
One message when it happens. Nothing else. No account needed.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jun 11, 2026, this market has traded between 28 percent (Aug 22, 2026) and 75 percent (Jun 11, 2026), across 2,390 recorded prices. The current price of 32 percent is 2.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (30 percent), and 21.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (53 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | 75% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 53% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 60% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 57% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 48% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 44% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 33% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 32% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 31 percent and the best ask is 32 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-29 05:26 UTC.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 32 percent, with the NO outcome at 68 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underly...
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:05 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.