Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Part of: Highest grossing movie in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?" at 96% as of Oct 15, 2026, 11:58 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 23, 2026, this market has traded between 80 percent (Jul 23, 2026) and 96 percent (Oct 5, 2026), across 2,619 recorded prices. The current price of 96 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (96 percent), and 2.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (94 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 91% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 92% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 93% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 93% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 93% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 94% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 94% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 94% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 95% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 96% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 96% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 96% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 96 percent, with the NO outcome at 4 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
More other markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 678414
Kresmion, "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 678414.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2026">Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 11:58 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.