Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Part of: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" at 7% as of Oct 15, 2026, 10:40 UTC, down from 8% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 4 percent (Sep 4, 2026) and 9 percent (Aug 26, 2026), across 2,662 recorded prices. The current price of 7 percent is 1.2 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (8 percent), and 0.1 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (7 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 7% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 7% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 8% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 7% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 8% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 8% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 7% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 7 percent, with the NO outcome at 93 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
More other markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 716942
Kresmion, "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-there-be-at-least-10000-measles-cases-in-the-us-in-2026-418-668-617-245-787-217. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 716942.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-there-be-at-least-10000-measles-cases-in-the-us-in-2026-418-668-617-245-787-217">Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 10:40 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.