No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Part of: Bank of England decision in November?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?" at 2% as of Oct 30, 2026, 00:49 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 24, 2026, this market has traded between 1 percent (Oct 29, 2026) and 24 percent (Oct 2, 2026), across 1,151 recorded prices. The current price of 2 percent is 0.9 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (2 percent), and 14.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (16 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | 21% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 14% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 10% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3% |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 2% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 2 percent, with the NO outcome at 98 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of...
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Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3247825
Kresmion, "No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-30, https://kresmion.com/odds/no-change-in-bank-of-englands-interest-rates-after-november-2026-meeting-20260730150602309. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3247825.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/no-change-in-bank-of-englands-interest-rates-after-november-2026-meeting-20260730150602309">No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-30 00:49 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.