Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Jul 3, 2026 to Oct 6, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Jul 3, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 29, 2026) to 63% (Jul 3, 2026), across 11,017 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the under...

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled geopolitics markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2774057

Kresmion, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-06, https://kresmion.com/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2774057.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440">Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>