US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 30, 2026 to Oct 8, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Sep 30, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 84% (Sep 30, 2026) to above 99% (Oct 7, 2026), across 277 recorded prices.

How this market resolved

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territoria...

Live markets in the same event

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled geopolitics markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5130977

Kresmion, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-08, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-7. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5130977.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-7">US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>