US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 23, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Sep 23, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 98% (Sep 23, 2026) to 99% (Sep 23, 2026), across 17 recorded prices.

How this market resolved

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted ...

Live markets in the same event

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled geopolitics markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4761458

Kresmion, "US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-25, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-x-yemen-ceasefire-continues-through-september-22-20260920. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4761458.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/us-x-yemen-ceasefire-continues-through-september-22-20260920">US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>