PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved YES · Oct 6, 2026
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Part of: Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" resolved Yes on Oct 6, 2026; the market last priced it above 99% on Oct 6, 2026, and at 97% seven days earlier.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Jun 14, 2026 to Oct 6, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Jun 14, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 83% (Jun 14, 2026) to above 99% (Oct 6, 2026), across 379 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2026 | 96% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 96% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 95% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 96% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 98% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 97% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 98% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 98% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 97% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 97% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 97% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 100% |
How this market resolved
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled politics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2063128
Kresmion, "Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-06, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-abiy-ahmed-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2063128.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-abiy-ahmed-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia">Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.