Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Part of: Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 24, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" at 0 percent YES, on $41.4M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 14, 2026, this market has traded between 0 percent (May 14, 2026) and 1 percent (Jul 24, 2026), across 752 recorded prices. The current price of 0 percent is 0.1 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (0 percent), and 0.9 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (1 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | 0% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 0% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 1% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 0% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 0% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 0% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 0% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 0 percent, with the NO outcome at 100 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-24 15:56 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.