Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?" at 84% as of Oct 15, 2026, 13:04 UTC, down from 94% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 21, 2026, this market has traded between 83 percent (Oct 15, 2026) and 95 percent (Oct 1, 2026), across 850 recorded prices. The current price of 84 percent is 10.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (94 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | 92% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 93% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 93% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 84% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 84 percent, with the NO outcome at 16 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-h...
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Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2299956
Kresmion, "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-high-1pt5t-by-december-31-797. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2299956.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-high-1pt5t-by-december-31-797">Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 13:04 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.