Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
Part of: Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?" at 9% as of Oct 25, 2026, 02:40 UTC, up from 8% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Aug 1, 2026, this market has traded between 8 percent (Oct 16, 2026) and 48 percent (Aug 5, 2026), across 2,696 recorded prices. The current price of 9 percent is 1.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (8 percent), and 7.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (16 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | 30% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 28% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 22% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 26% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 17% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 17% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 16% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 17% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 11% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 9% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 9 percent, with the NO outcome at 91 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
More crypto markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 690675
Kresmion, "Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-25, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-arc-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 690675.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-arc-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026">Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-25 02:40 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.