Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
Part of: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?" at 16 percent YES, up 1.6 points in the last 24 hours, on $2.5M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 16, 2026, this market has traded between 9 percent (Aug 23, 2026) and 58 percent (Jul 14, 2026), across 1,335 recorded prices. The current price of 16 percent is 0.7 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (17 percent), and 27.6 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (44 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | 44% |
| May 18, 2026 | 48% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 47% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 41% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 50% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 43% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 41% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 10% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 16% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 16 percent, with the NO outcome at 84 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 07:41 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.