Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?
Part of: What price will Ethereum hit in October?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?" at 6% as of Oct 15, 2026, 10:51 UTC, down from 18% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Oct 2, 2026, this market has traded between 6 percent (Oct 15, 2026) and 46 percent (Oct 5, 2026), across 423 recorded prices. The current price of 6 percent is 12.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (18 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | 45% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 14% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 6% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 5 percent and the best ask is 6 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.055 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $6 at the best bid and $314 at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-15 08:42 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 6 percent, with the NO outcome at 94 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
More crypto markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5170771
Kresmion, "Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-ethereum-reach-3000-in-october-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5170771.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 10:51 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.