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PREDICTION MARKET ODDS

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?

Part of: What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Polymarket traders priced "Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?" at 6% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:47 UTC, up from 5% a week earlier.

As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 1294367. Method and limitations.

Yes probability
6%
7d change
+0.5pp
Volume
$171K
Resolves by
Jan 1, 2027
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Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Sep 1, 2026, this market has traded between 5 percent (Sep 1, 2026) and 7 percent (Sep 2, 2026), across 765 recorded prices. The current price of 6 percent is 0.5 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (5 percent).

Lifetime high
7%
Lifetime low
5%
7 days ago
5%
Recorded prices
765

Weekly closes

Last recorded YES probability of each week, oldest first.
Week startYES probability
Aug 31, 20266%
Sep 7, 20265%
Sep 14, 20266%
Sep 21, 20266%

Other outcomes in this event

Yes probability
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?9%

Market details

Lifetime volume
$171K
24h volume
$119
Liquidity
$73K
Resolution date
Jan 1, 2027
Category
Macro

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 6 percent, with the NO outcome at 94 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

Resolution rules, as published by Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futu...

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Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1294367

Kresmion, "Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-gold-gc-hit-high-7000-by-end-of-december. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1294367.

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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 15:47 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.

Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.