Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
Part of: Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?" at 13% as of Oct 15, 2026, 10:55 UTC, up from 11% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 30, 2026, this market has traded between 10 percent (Oct 3, 2026) and 38 percent (Sep 30, 2026), across 3,076 recorded prices. The current price of 13 percent is 2.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (11 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | 10% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 11% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 13% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 12 percent and the best ask is 13 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.13 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $28K at the best bid and $4K at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-15 10:48 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 13 percent, with the NO outcome at 87 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is sat...
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Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5126779
Kresmion, "Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2027. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5126779.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2027">Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 10:55 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.