Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Part of: Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?" at 4% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:17 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2125869. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 4, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Aug 5, 2026) and 19 percent (May 4, 2026), across 2,425 recorded prices. The current price of 4 percent is 0.6 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (4 percent), and 0.6 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (5 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 4% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 4% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 4% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 4 percent and the best ask is 5 percent, a spread of 0.9 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.043 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $2 at the best bid and $5 at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 4 percent, with the NO outcome at 96 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2125869
Kresmion, "Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-nebraska-use-a-new-congressional-map-for-the-2026-united-states-midterm-elections. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2125869.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-nebraska-use-a-new-congressional-map-for-the-2026-united-states-midterm-elections">Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:17 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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