Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

"Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" resolved No on Sep 17, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 17, 2026, and below 1% seven days earlier.

As of settlement on Sep 17, 2026. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2304334. Method and limitations.

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Jun 19, 2026 to Sep 17, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Jun 19, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Aug 10, 2026) to 2% (Jun 19, 2026), across 1,999 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Other settled outcomes in this event

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More politics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

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Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2304334

Kresmion, "Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-17, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-christian-democrats-kd-win-the-third-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2304334.