PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Sep 17, 2026
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Part of: Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" resolved No on Sep 17, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 17, 2026.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2304331. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 13, 2026 to Sep 17, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 13, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 14, 2026) to 10% (Sep 13, 2026), across 29 recorded prices.
How this market resolved
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More macro markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled macro markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2304331
Kresmion, "Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-17, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-moderate-party-m-win-the-third-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2304331.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.