Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?
Part of: Next Claude Opus released on...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?" at 67% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:41 UTC.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 4627752. Method and limitations.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 21, 2026, this market has traded between 60 percent (Sep 21, 2026) and 82 percent (Sep 22, 2026), across 36 recorded prices.
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 65 percent and the best ask is 67 percent, a spread of 1.3 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $14 on the bid side and $61 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-09-22 15:29 UTC.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 67 percent, with the NO outcome at 33 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
More other markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4627752
Kresmion, "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-be-released-on-september-22-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4627752.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 15:41 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.