Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Part of: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 24, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?" at 22 percent YES, down 6.8 points in the last 24 hours, on $1.0M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 30, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Jul 31, 2026) and 84 percent (Aug 4, 2026), across 820 recorded prices. The current price of 22 percent is 17.8 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (40 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 29% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 61% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 34% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 31% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 22% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 21 percent and the best ask is 23 percent, a spread of 1.3 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-24 17:04 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 22 percent, with the NO outcome at 78 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-24 17:00 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.