Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Part of: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?" at 64% as of Oct 15, 2026, 13:49 UTC.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Oct 13, 2026, this market has traded between 44 percent (Oct 13, 2026) and 68 percent (Oct 13, 2026), across 89 recorded prices.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 64 percent, with the NO outcome at 36 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
More macro markets
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Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1168141
Kresmion, "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-funds-rate-be-4pt25-at-the-end-of-2026-984. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1168141.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-funds-rate-be-4pt25-at-the-end-of-2026-984">Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 13:49 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.