Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Part of: Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?" at 7 percent YES, on $10.6M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Apr 30, 2026, this market has traded between 5 percent (Jul 29, 2026) and 19 percent (May 12, 2026), across 1,768 recorded prices. The current price of 7 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (7 percent), and 1.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (6 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | 14% |
| May 4, 2026 | 14% |
| May 11, 2026 | 14% |
| May 18, 2026 | 14% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 8% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 8% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 7% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 7% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 7 percent, with the NO outcome at 93 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing...
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:10 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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