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The Federal Reserve on one page: when the FOMC meets, what it published, how the decision markets price each outcome, and what the balance sheet is doing.
How this is computed

Kresmion computes the 4-week and 52-week changes from two published observations of the same series, and on the decision-odds ladder it reads each outcome's last stored price per day, picks the ladder as the venue event with the most traded volume, and expresses every other market on that meeting as a share of the ladder's volume. Nothing on this page is a forecast by Kresmion.

  • Decision odds are prices of event contracts on Polymarket. They move with trading, include the venue's spread and fees, and the five outcomes need not sum to exactly 100. Kresmion reports them as prices and does not forecast the decision.
  • Each day on the chart is the last price Kresmion captured that UTC day. Capture runs on a clock, so a quiet day has fewer captures than a busy one.
  • A move is listed when one outcome changed by 5 points or more from one stored day to the next. The events beside it are the Fed's own releases and FOMC decision days; they are shown by date and are not claimed as the cause.
  • Balance-sheet changes compare two published observations of the same series, 28 and 364 days apart or the nearest earlier observation. FRED publishes the H.4.1 series in millions of dollars; this page shows billions.
  • SOMA holdings are par values as the New York Fed publishes them, weekly since July 2003.

The next FOMC decision is on 9 December 2026, in 40 days. The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, with interest on reserve balances at 3.90%. On Polymarket, the 9 December 2026 decision ladder prices hike 25 bp at 71.5% and no change at 25.5%, on $8.9M traded across the ladder. Reserve balances were $2,893.8bn in the week to 28 October 2026, -$54.3bn over four weeks.

As of . Sources: Federal Reserve Board (FOMC calendar and press releases), Federal Reserve Bank of New York (reference rates, operations, SOMA), FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Polymarket (meeting decision markets). Method and limitations.

Next FOMC decision
9 Dec
in 40 days · with projections
Highest-priced outcome
Hike 25 bp 71.5%
Polymarket, 9 Dec ladder · $8.9M traded
Fed funds target range
3.75% - 4.00%
IORB 3.90% · ON RRP 3.75%
Reserve balances
$2,893.8bn
-$54.3bn over 4 weeks · 28 Oct
SOMA holdings
$6,355.8bn
+$199.0bn over 52 weeks · week of 28 Oct

Rate decision odds by meeting

Polymarket; prices in percent, not a forecast
9 December 2026: ladder volume $8.9M; prices sum to 100.0%
Outcome prices, last 90 days
No changeCut 25 bpCut 50 bp or moreHike 25 bpHike 50 bp or more
0%20%40%60%80%100%27 Aug9 Sep22 Sep4 Oct17 Oct30 Oct

Price in percent, the last capture of each UTC day. Hover for every outcome on a day.

Now, by outcome
No change $2.1M vol25.5%
Cut 25 bp $1.9M vol0.5%
Cut 50 bp or more $1.7M vol0.4%
Hike 25 bp $2.0M vol71.5%
Hike 50 bp or more $1.1M vol2.1%

Other markets on this meeting: "Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?" $353k (4.0% of the ladder, a side market).

2-year Treasury yield, same window
3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%3 Aug19 Aug4 Sep23 Sep9 Oct28 Oct

4.67% on 28 October 2026, up 42 bp over the window (H.15 via FRED). Rules: the target range.

Largest day-to-day moves on this ladder
Fed events that day or the day before
29 OctNo change +9.0 ptsFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement; FOMC decision day
22 OctHike 25 bp -7.5 ptsnone recorded
2 OctNo change -7.0 ptsnone recorded
1 OctHike 25 bp -6.0 ptsnone recorded
28 SeptNo change -10.0 ptsnone recorded
16 SeptHike 25 bp +9.0 ptsFederal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting; Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; FOMC decision day
10 SeptHike 25 bp +16.0 ptsnone recorded
28 AugHike 25 bp +12.5 ptsnone recorded

Last meeting, 28 October 2026: the ladder settled on no change ($101.8M traded).

Each price is what the venue's contract on that outcome last traded or quoted, read as a percentage. The ladder is the one Polymarket event with the most traded volume for that meeting; a leg is marked thin when the venue reports under $50k of liquidity on it, and another market on the same meeting is called a side market when its volume is under 10% of the ladder's.

Where overnight rates sit in the range

as of 28 October 2026; floor 0%, ceiling 100%
Money markets →
EFFR 3.88% · 28 Oct52%
OBFR 3.88% · 28 Oct52%
SOFR 3.94% · 28 Oct76%
BGCR 3.92% · 28 Oct68%
TGCR 3.92% · 28 Oct68%
Federal funds target range3.75% to 4.00%
Interest on reserve balances3.90%
Overnight reverse repo award rate3.75%
Discount window primary credit4.00%

Reserves and the balance sheet

weekly, H.4.1 via FRED; overnight reverse repo daily
Liquidity →
Total assets WALCL · 28 Oct$6,745.6bn
Reserve balances WRESBAL · 28 Oct$2,893.8bn
Treasury General Account WTREGEN · 28 Oct$999.7bn
Overnight reverse repo RRPONTSYD · 29 Oct$0.4bn

SOMA holdings by security type

par value, week of 28 October 2026
Mix$6,355.8bn
Treasury bills$571.5bn
Treasury notes and bonds$3,600.7bn
TIPS$277.7bn
Floating rate notes$20.0bn
Agency MBS$1,876.2bn
Agency CMBS$7.3bn
Agency debt$2.3bn

Total SOMA: $6,355.8bn; 4 weeks -$2.7bn; 52 weeks +$199.0bn.

Total is the New York Fed's own total; TIPS inflation compensation is reported separately and is not summed here. The mix bar is each type's share of the types listed.

FOMC calendar

scheduled meetings through 8 December 2027
What changed in each statement →
Decision dayInProjections
9 December 202640 dyes
27 January 202789 dno
17 March 2027138 dyes
28 April 2027180 dno
9 June 2027222 dyes
28 July 2027271 dno
15 September 2027320 dyes
27 October 2027362 dno
Recent meetingStatementMinutesProjections
28 October 2026readn/anone
16 September 2026readreadread
29 July 2026readreadnone
17 June 2026readreadread
29 April 2026readreadnone
18 March 2026n/areadn/a

Decision days from the Federal Reserve's own FOMC calendar; projections marks the meetings the Fed lists with a Summary of Economic Projections. Minutes are published about three weeks after a meeting, so the newest meeting shows n/a until they appear.

Monetary policy releases

Federal Reserve press releases, newest first

Wed, Oct 28

Tue, Oct 13

Wed, Oct 7

Wed, Sep 16

Tue, Aug 25

Wed, Aug 19

Wed, Jul 29

Tue, Jul 14

Thu, Jul 9

Wed, Jul 8

Wed, Jun 17

Tue, May 26

Wed, May 20

New York Fed operations

latest result of each type
OperationDateAcceptedCounterpartiesRate
Overnight reverse repo29 Oct$0.4bn43.75%
Repo (standing facility)29 Oct$0.0bnn/a4.00% offered

More on the Fed

Cite this data

Kresmion computes the 4-week and 52-week changes from two published observations of the same series, and on the decision-odds ladder it reads each outcome's last stored price per day, picks the ladder as the venue event with the most traded volume, and expresses every other market on that meeting as a share of the ladder's volume. Nothing on this page is a forecast by Kresmion.

Upstream: Federal Reserve Board (FOMC calendar and press releases), Federal Reserve Bank of New York (reference rates, operations, SOMA), FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Polymarket (meeting decision markets)

Kresmion, "Kresmion Fed Hub", data as of 2026-10-29, https://kresmion.com/macro/fed. Upstream data: Federal Reserve Board (FOMC calendar and press releases); Federal Reserve Bank of New York (reference rates, operations, SOMA); FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Polymarket (meeting decision markets).

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/macro/fed">Kresmion Fed Hub (Kresmion)</a>